Ever since the Confidence and Supply deal between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael began in 2016, there has been constant media speculation regarding the next General Election. I imagine there are few people that would have thought that the deal would still be in place over three years later, but is the deal finally coming to an end this year?
While the official line is that there will be an election in early 2020, there is speculation that we could see an election called as early as next month. Politicians are gearing up for an election at some point in the near future with most local papers carrying several political ads, and it's hard to scroll through Facebook without seeing a post from an election candidate, though it is not in itself an election indicator.
The Confidence and Supply deal was extended to ensure that a government is in place when Britain is due to exit the EU on 31st October, but this may no longer be a concern. The rise of the Green Party in May's local elections, along with a slight recovery for Labour, offers two potential partners for either FF or FG. This is important as the C&S deal took quite some time to negotiate, and both parties are accustomed to leading a government, not sharing one.
Were a GE to take place next month, a government could still be formed in time to deal with the latest Brexit deadline. The Greens have stated that they would be open to going into coalition with either party, and Labour has a strong track record of propping up FG governments. A deal between parties could be struck in a matter of weeks.
There is also the matter of a referendum on voting rights in October, which could see voting rights extended to all Irish citizens for the next Presidential Election due to take place in 2025. It is hard to envisage this vote taking place on its own, given that previous referenda were usually held in pairs to incentivise turn out. While this could be a preliminary date for the next GE, it could just as easily be deferred due to the fact that it won't come into effect for another six years.
It's also important to remember that FF and FG have stuck together through thick and thin over the last three years. Scandals such as the Hospital Crisis, Cervical Check, Maurice McCabe, and the Housing Crisis have failed to bring down this government, which makes it hard to imagine something so appalling that it would bring down this government.
Brexit is playing a huge part in keeping this government together also, and it's hard to see an election being called until it's at least somewhat sorted, or another lengthy extension. I believe that the window is closing on an election being called in 2019, if it doesn't happen by mid-September, the likelihood is that we won't see one until 2020. As long as FF and FG stay within a few points of each other in the polls, and unless an agreement is done between either party with the Greens and Labour, there isn't much incentive for either to call an election. Neither party wants to risk defeat, and gifting five years of government to the other.
If there isn't any movement within the next few weeks, don't be surprised if we're waiting until next year to decide who will govern our state for the next five years.
While the official line is that there will be an election in early 2020, there is speculation that we could see an election called as early as next month. Politicians are gearing up for an election at some point in the near future with most local papers carrying several political ads, and it's hard to scroll through Facebook without seeing a post from an election candidate, though it is not in itself an election indicator.
The Confidence and Supply deal was extended to ensure that a government is in place when Britain is due to exit the EU on 31st October, but this may no longer be a concern. The rise of the Green Party in May's local elections, along with a slight recovery for Labour, offers two potential partners for either FF or FG. This is important as the C&S deal took quite some time to negotiate, and both parties are accustomed to leading a government, not sharing one.
Were a GE to take place next month, a government could still be formed in time to deal with the latest Brexit deadline. The Greens have stated that they would be open to going into coalition with either party, and Labour has a strong track record of propping up FG governments. A deal between parties could be struck in a matter of weeks.
There is also the matter of a referendum on voting rights in October, which could see voting rights extended to all Irish citizens for the next Presidential Election due to take place in 2025. It is hard to envisage this vote taking place on its own, given that previous referenda were usually held in pairs to incentivise turn out. While this could be a preliminary date for the next GE, it could just as easily be deferred due to the fact that it won't come into effect for another six years.
It's also important to remember that FF and FG have stuck together through thick and thin over the last three years. Scandals such as the Hospital Crisis, Cervical Check, Maurice McCabe, and the Housing Crisis have failed to bring down this government, which makes it hard to imagine something so appalling that it would bring down this government.
Brexit is playing a huge part in keeping this government together also, and it's hard to see an election being called until it's at least somewhat sorted, or another lengthy extension. I believe that the window is closing on an election being called in 2019, if it doesn't happen by mid-September, the likelihood is that we won't see one until 2020. As long as FF and FG stay within a few points of each other in the polls, and unless an agreement is done between either party with the Greens and Labour, there isn't much incentive for either to call an election. Neither party wants to risk defeat, and gifting five years of government to the other.
If there isn't any movement within the next few weeks, don't be surprised if we're waiting until next year to decide who will govern our state for the next five years.
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