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Trump vs ?

As some of you may be aware, the race for the nomination from the Democrats to take on current US President Donald Trump is underway, despite it being over a year away from the actual election and months away from being decided. The process to select a person to stand for the Democrats in the 2020 election will begin next April, but the candidates are already in election mode and the TV debates have began, with no punches being pulled even at this early stage.

While I'm sure that I will be doing more political analyses over the course of the campaign and indeed the 2020 election, let's have a look at who could be squaring up against Donald Trump next year.

This is not an open election, it's an internal selection process within the Democrats, and therefore the TV debates only count for so much. What it will come down to will be the choice of the members of the party, and that may not be the best result for the hopes of the party regaining the White House.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were neck and neck in the regular votes, but the party have a system which has ordinary delegates and super-delegates, with the super-delegates overwhelmingly supporting Hillary. Had things been different we could be talking about which Republican would be taking on the incumbant President Sanders.

What makes this selection more interesting is that the Democrats have a record of not always going with an older white male, something the Republican Party certainly can't brag about, and it leaves the door open to many of the candidates hoping to become the next US President. However at this early stage we seem to have two old white men leading the race for the nomination, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Right on their heals there are Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg. And lagging behind are the familiar names of Beto O'Rourke and Bill DeBlasio. After that, who knows ? I could tell you that Jim Thomson is running for the Democratic nomination, and you'd probably Google the name ( I made that name up, but you get my point).

But one of those nobodies is Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, whose media perofrmances showed clear strategy, political knowledge, and a personality. He has momentum behind him, and while I don't see him getting into the top five, it may be a name we see again as he's only 37.

Many of these people have built up political support within the party, and that's what this race is about. Biden was Obama's Vice-President, and Sanders has had a long political career and has the support of much of the socialist element within the party. The rest will have to campaign extra hard to topple either of these two, but it's certainly not out of the question. Biden can't name-check Obama for the next six months, and while Sanders is well able to argue, he can't do a whole lot else in his debates.

Biden is being very selective in when he references Obama, only mentioning his former senior when it suits, and other than that he has offered little else in the debates. It's evident that he is the favourite from the strategies of the other candidates, Biden has a big crosshairs on the back of his suit, and candidates such as Kamala Harris are prepared to point out the many failings from his political career, which began long before he was Obama's VP.

The goading of Sanders has kind of made him seem like the grumping old guy down the street who always shouts at kids for playing. His policies are solid, but his appearance and performance leave something to desire.

What will make this selection interesting is the fact that many Democrats will be looking at who can beat Trump, rather than who they like the best. Sanders and Biden, have a long political track record, some good, some not so good. They are both politically alike to Hillary Clinton, and the last thing the Democrats need is a repeat of 2016.

The two candidates who have the fire, presentation, and performance abilities are Cory Booker and Kamala Harris. They both have decent political careers, but they aren't dinosaurs who have spent decades in office. They're fresh, intelligent, and I believe could rise above Trump's rhetoric, insults, and attacks.

There's a long road ahead in the race to the White House, but unless the O'Rourke, DeBlasio, or Buttigieg pull something out of the bag, I predict that the five contenders for the nomination are Biden, Sanders, Warren, Booker, and Harris.


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