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RWC 2019 - Analysis and Prediction

So it's been four years since the last Rugby World Cup, and the most memorable part of RWC 2015 for me is how unmemorable it was. Maybe it's because I'm Irish and the hype simply wasn't there last time for the Irish team, but this time it's different. Being a first seed team has given Ireland a potential route to the semi-final, maybe beyond. If this RWC had been held two years ago I would have been straight down to Paddy Power to back Ireland for the win, they were on form, they'd beaten New Zealand and just looked unstoppable. Now I'm still going to back Ireland for this tournament, but it won't be quite as much money I'm afraid.

Lately the Ireland team haven't been performing to levels that we're used to seeing from the side, and none of the four Irish provinces have been performing particularly well either. We have some outstanding players on the field, but as many know a world cup requires depth to a squad which Ireland simply doesn't have, we have a few subs that are good but will not be able to come close to their first team counterparts.

But this article will look at the whole world cup from groups stages to the final, and I'm going to start with Group A, which consists of Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Russia, and Samoa. As previously mentioned, Ireland hasn't been playing at their best, but this draw suits the team perfectly and they should sail through without much difficulty. Where I do see an upset however is in second place, Japan with home advantage and a decent squad, should just about beat an under-performing Scotland to second position bringing them to the quarter finals.

Group B is a battle for first place between New Zealand and South Africa, a battle which I can't see SA winning, though they should finish comfortably in second place. The other countries, Italy, Namibia, and Canada, will likely finish the table in that order. Italy may have come on in recent years but the draw has effectively booked them an early flight home.

Group C consists of England, France, Argentina, USA, and Tonga, and could prove an interesting group to watch as it has 'upsets' written all over it. Though the US team lacks rugby skills, they have a good level of fitness and physicality, and could upset France or Argentina. England should top the group, but three games to watch will be France v USA, Argentina v USA, and definitely France v Argentina. I see France having the biggest struggle with the USA of the two, and we could very well see a draw between France and Argentina. I think Argentina will edge second place, maybe on points difference.

Group D is once again a battle for first place, this time between Australia and Wales. Wales can certainly pull a performance out of the bag and their match with the Aussies will be the time to do it. But with the tournament in the Far East and Australia's consistency, I think they will top the group.

Going on these predictions, we now move on to the Quarter Finals. First up England v Wales, which is always a match to watch. England will have had a tougher group, and if Wales are happy with second place in their group, they may have some well rested players taking to the field that day. Again it will take a serious performance from Wales, but England should just about make their way to the semi-finals. I wouldn't be doing any handicap betting on this game, which could very well go to extra time.

New Zealand will then come up against Japan, and the only consolation for the Japanese is that they won't have to get an early flight home.

Australia will have had a much easier group than Argentina, and should turn up fresher on the day. But even if Argentina were the fresher team, it's hard to see them beating Australia, who should comfortably get to the semi finals.

Whether you're Irish or not, the pick of the quarter finals has to be Ireland v South Africa. Both will have come out of reasonably easy groups, except for SA's match with NZ, and will be fielding the best of the bunch on that day for what would be an epic quarter final. Ireland has the squad to beat SA, and should narrowly edge a victory, though again I wouldn't be doing any handicap bets.

This will then see England taking on New Zealand in the first semi final, which is only going to go one way. The All Blacks will have annihilated the Japanese, possibly with the team made up of their bench, making sure that they are at 100% for this semi-final. England will have had battles with France, Argentina, and Wales, and will have likely picked up a few injuries along the way. They will struggle to come within ten points of New Zealand.

Ireland certainly has the potential to beat Australia in the semi final, but it's very dependent on injury levels. They shouldn't be fatigued when taking on SA, but I feel that it's a game that could take a lot out of the team, leaving little there to take on a rather fresh Australian team. If Australia start off with an early lead, we say see some key players substituted for Ireland in order to rest them for the third place play-off against our oppressors.

The third place play-off will see the atmosphere of a world cup final if it's between Ireland and England. No doubt we'll see empty streets, astronomical levels of 'sick days', and packed pubs for the clash. Ireland to take home the bronze medals.

This will leave NZ to take on Australia in the final, with may be an anti-climax after an Ireland v England third place match. It will take a lot from Australia to beat New Zealand, who I think will win the 2019 Rugby World Cup.


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