Friday 29th November 2019 will see four by-elections take place in Ireland to fill the seats vacated by TDs who were elected to the European Parliament in May's EU elections. The elections will take place in Wexford, Dublin Fingal, Dublin Mid-West, and Cork North-Central. Given that the Dáil is currently operating under a minority Fine Gael/Independent government, facilitated by Fianna Fáil, the results of these four contests could have a major impact on Dáil arithmetic. Based on the 2016 election results, current trends, and candidates I will analyse each seat individually, in individual articles. Today's article is focused on the constituency of Dublin Mid-West.
The seat was vacated by former TD and controversial Minister for Justice Frances Fitzgerald of Fine Gael, who was elected to the European Parliament in May's EU election. Fine Gael will have a tough battle on their hands to keep Sinn Féin from winning this seat, and securing a second TD for the constituency. Cllr Emer Higgins will contest the by-election for the party, but her message is very similar to that of Sinn Féin, the struggle of ordinary workers and tackling the housing crisis. While that message will certainly resonate with the largely working class constituency, it may not pay off for the party who were responsible for Property Tax, Water Charges, and worsening the housing crisis.
On the other hand that same message being delivered by Sinn Féin Cllr Mark Ward, a former Mayor of South Dublin, is much more likely to hit home for voters, and appear more genuine. Ward has a notoriety in the constituency, as does current SF TD and the party's Housing Spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin who polled nearly 10,000 votes as the sole SF candidate in 2016.
This is very much a centre-left constituency, with People Before Profit, the Social Democrats, and the Greens, likely to receive decent votes. These votes are more likely to transfer to Sinn Féin, than to Fine Gael, given their locations on the political spectrum. There are also more liberal/left candidates contesting this by-election that will likely continue this trend, though with less votes to transfer; Former Green Party TD Paul Gogarty (AKA F*ck You Deputy Stagg), Labour's Joanna Tuffy, the Workers' Party's David Gardiner, and Independents4Change candidate Ruth Nolan.
However Fianna Fáil will certainly receive a sizeable vote, some of which will likely go to Sinn Féin, though the majority should transfer to Fine Gael's Higgins. This makes the constituency very much a two horse race, though first preferences will go across the board. Where those votes end up will leave the constituency in a head to head battle between the right and the left. In this case I can see the left winning via a photo finish.
The seat was vacated by former TD and controversial Minister for Justice Frances Fitzgerald of Fine Gael, who was elected to the European Parliament in May's EU election. Fine Gael will have a tough battle on their hands to keep Sinn Féin from winning this seat, and securing a second TD for the constituency. Cllr Emer Higgins will contest the by-election for the party, but her message is very similar to that of Sinn Féin, the struggle of ordinary workers and tackling the housing crisis. While that message will certainly resonate with the largely working class constituency, it may not pay off for the party who were responsible for Property Tax, Water Charges, and worsening the housing crisis.
On the other hand that same message being delivered by Sinn Féin Cllr Mark Ward, a former Mayor of South Dublin, is much more likely to hit home for voters, and appear more genuine. Ward has a notoriety in the constituency, as does current SF TD and the party's Housing Spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin who polled nearly 10,000 votes as the sole SF candidate in 2016.
This is very much a centre-left constituency, with People Before Profit, the Social Democrats, and the Greens, likely to receive decent votes. These votes are more likely to transfer to Sinn Féin, than to Fine Gael, given their locations on the political spectrum. There are also more liberal/left candidates contesting this by-election that will likely continue this trend, though with less votes to transfer; Former Green Party TD Paul Gogarty (AKA F*ck You Deputy Stagg), Labour's Joanna Tuffy, the Workers' Party's David Gardiner, and Independents4Change candidate Ruth Nolan.
However Fianna Fáil will certainly receive a sizeable vote, some of which will likely go to Sinn Féin, though the majority should transfer to Fine Gael's Higgins. This makes the constituency very much a two horse race, though first preferences will go across the board. Where those votes end up will leave the constituency in a head to head battle between the right and the left. In this case I can see the left winning via a photo finish.
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