Friday 29th November 2019 will see four by-elections take place in Ireland to fill the seats vacated by TDs who were elected to the European Parliament in May's EU elections. The elections will take place in Wexford, Dublin Fingal, Dublin Mid-West, and Cork North-Central. Given that the Dáil is currently operating under a minority Fine Gael/Independent government, facilitated by Fianna Fáil, the results of these four contests could have a major impact on Dáil arithmetic. Based on the 2016 election results, current trends, and candidates I will analyse each seat individually, in individual articles. Today's article is focused on the constituency of Wexford.
This seat was vacated by Mick Wallace MEP, a left wing Independent who polled 11% in the 2016 election. While Sinn Féin candidate Johnny Mythen came within a hair's width of taking a seat in 2016, he failed to retain his seat on Wexford County Council in May's local elections. With an Aontú candidate in the mix, which could take some pro-life republican votes, Sinn Féin are a long way off winning the seat. Though Mythen failed to get a seat, Sinn Féin still have councillors throughout the county who could muster up some support for their candidate, and there's the matter of Mick Wallace's supporters who may well gravitate towards the left candidate.
I think it would be fair to immediately dismiss challenges from People Before Profit, Irish Freedom Party, and Aontú in this by-election, even in a full general election with five seats up for grabs, none of these parties would be in with a chance. The Green Party's Karin Dubsky could see a respectable vote in this contest, though it's hard to see any of the Green Party's policies on Farming, Greyhound Racing, and releasing wolves into the wild, gaining much support in Wexford.
Following eliminations and the subsequent transfers, the Wexford by-election will likely come down to a three horse race between Fianna Fáil councillor, and recent MEP candidate Malcolm Byrne, Fine Gael's Verona Murphy, and Labour's George Lawlor.
Byrne will likely come out of this battle victorious based on his political record, narrowly missing out on becoming a TD for Wexford in 2016 and an MEP for Ireland South in 2019, following controversy regarding how many seats were actually up for grabs. This has built his profile massively, and given increases in support for Fianna Fáil, he is a major contender for this seat.
If this is the case then it will be a close battle for second place, which will have no reward in this one seat election. Fine Gael had a good election in 2016, electing two of its three candidates, who have maintained a strong presence in the constituency, however the by-election candidate will have a lot of catching up to do, to build a profile like Malcolm Byrne, as will Labour's George Lawlor. While the Fine Gael and Labour candidates will hope that the votes for Paul Kehoe, Michael D'Arcy, and Brendan Howlin, will transfer to them as a party vote, Byrne has his own core vote built up at a county level. What may see Lawlor pip Murphy to second place, and possibly to a seat, is a combination of the centrist Mick Wallace vote, and transfers from SF, PBP, Aon, and independents, which will more likely go his way than to Fine Gael.
This seat was vacated by Mick Wallace MEP, a left wing Independent who polled 11% in the 2016 election. While Sinn Féin candidate Johnny Mythen came within a hair's width of taking a seat in 2016, he failed to retain his seat on Wexford County Council in May's local elections. With an Aontú candidate in the mix, which could take some pro-life republican votes, Sinn Féin are a long way off winning the seat. Though Mythen failed to get a seat, Sinn Féin still have councillors throughout the county who could muster up some support for their candidate, and there's the matter of Mick Wallace's supporters who may well gravitate towards the left candidate.
I think it would be fair to immediately dismiss challenges from People Before Profit, Irish Freedom Party, and Aontú in this by-election, even in a full general election with five seats up for grabs, none of these parties would be in with a chance. The Green Party's Karin Dubsky could see a respectable vote in this contest, though it's hard to see any of the Green Party's policies on Farming, Greyhound Racing, and releasing wolves into the wild, gaining much support in Wexford.
Following eliminations and the subsequent transfers, the Wexford by-election will likely come down to a three horse race between Fianna Fáil councillor, and recent MEP candidate Malcolm Byrne, Fine Gael's Verona Murphy, and Labour's George Lawlor.
Byrne will likely come out of this battle victorious based on his political record, narrowly missing out on becoming a TD for Wexford in 2016 and an MEP for Ireland South in 2019, following controversy regarding how many seats were actually up for grabs. This has built his profile massively, and given increases in support for Fianna Fáil, he is a major contender for this seat.
If this is the case then it will be a close battle for second place, which will have no reward in this one seat election. Fine Gael had a good election in 2016, electing two of its three candidates, who have maintained a strong presence in the constituency, however the by-election candidate will have a lot of catching up to do, to build a profile like Malcolm Byrne, as will Labour's George Lawlor. While the Fine Gael and Labour candidates will hope that the votes for Paul Kehoe, Michael D'Arcy, and Brendan Howlin, will transfer to them as a party vote, Byrne has his own core vote built up at a county level. What may see Lawlor pip Murphy to second place, and possibly to a seat, is a combination of the centrist Mick Wallace vote, and transfers from SF, PBP, Aon, and independents, which will more likely go his way than to Fine Gael.
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