Skip to main content

By-Elections 2019 - Wexford

Friday 29th November 2019 will see four by-elections take place in Ireland to fill the seats vacated by TDs who were elected to the European Parliament in May's EU elections. The elections will take place in Wexford, Dublin Fingal, Dublin Mid-West, and Cork North-Central. Given that the Dáil is currently operating under a minority Fine Gael/Independent government, facilitated by Fianna Fáil, the results of these four contests could have a major impact on Dáil arithmetic. Based on the 2016 election results, current trends, and candidates I will analyse each seat individually, in individual articles. Today's article is focused on the constituency of Wexford.

This seat was vacated by Mick Wallace MEP, a left wing Independent who polled 11% in the 2016 election. While Sinn Féin candidate Johnny Mythen came within a hair's width of taking a seat in 2016, he failed to retain his seat on Wexford County Council in May's local elections. With an Aontú candidate in the mix, which could take some pro-life republican votes, Sinn Féin are a long way off winning the seat. Though Mythen failed to get a seat, Sinn Féin still have councillors throughout the county who could muster up some support for their candidate, and there's the matter of Mick Wallace's supporters who may well gravitate towards the left candidate.

I think it would be fair to immediately dismiss challenges from People Before Profit, Irish Freedom Party, and Aontú in this by-election, even in a full general election with five seats up for grabs, none of these parties would be in with a chance. The Green Party's Karin Dubsky could see a respectable vote in this contest, though it's hard to see any of the Green Party's policies on Farming, Greyhound Racing, and releasing wolves into the wild, gaining much support in Wexford.

Following eliminations and the subsequent transfers, the Wexford by-election will likely come down to a three horse race between Fianna Fáil councillor, and recent MEP candidate Malcolm Byrne, Fine Gael's Verona Murphy, and Labour's George Lawlor.

Byrne will likely come out of this battle victorious based on his political record, narrowly missing out on becoming a TD for Wexford in 2016 and an MEP for Ireland South in 2019, following controversy regarding how many seats were actually up for grabs. This has built his profile massively, and given increases in support for Fianna Fáil, he is a major contender for this seat.

If this is the case then it will be a close battle for second place, which will have no reward in this one seat election. Fine Gael had a good election in 2016, electing two of its three candidates, who have maintained a strong presence in the constituency, however the by-election candidate will have a lot of catching up to do, to build a profile like Malcolm Byrne, as will Labour's George Lawlor. While the Fine Gael and Labour candidates will hope that the votes for Paul Kehoe, Michael D'Arcy, and Brendan Howlin, will transfer to them as a party vote, Byrne has his own core vote built up at a county level. What may see Lawlor pip Murphy to second place, and possibly to a seat, is a combination of the centrist Mick Wallace vote, and transfers from SF, PBP, Aon, and independents, which will more likely go his way than to Fine Gael.









Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Sinn Féin Pre-Election Analysis

  Operating off the recent in-depth RedC poll, while taking other recent polls into account, one thing is certain, Sinn Féin will have a time-machine on the top of their list to Santa if the election isn’t called before Christmas. It seems like it was only yesterday when the party was polling in the mid-30s, reaching a high of 36%, and seemed like a government in waiting if they managed to get some smaller parties and independents on board. What must have been a scramble for candidates to even get within a whiff of a majority, now some tough decisions will have to be made as to whether they will even run a second candidate in some constituencies. Keep in mind that in some constituencies where the polled well in 2020, and were polling very well in polls, such as Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan, and Louth, there were rumours of a third candidate being added in the 5-seater constituencies where they were polling close to 50% of the vote. When once there were talks of 60+ seats, now they...

Putin Brings Term Limits Into Question

Love him, hate him, or simply don't care about him, Vladimir Putin will be allowed to serve as President of Russia for the foreseeable future. But one thing that many sensationalist headlines are ignoring, is that he actually has to be elected to continue in his role as the Russian head of state. Whether you think Russia has fair elections or not, it brings a broader question into the fore; should political term limits even exist? Let’s move west of the Kremlin, and think about this political situation with some leaders who are more favourable to westerners than the beast from the east. Barack Obama was not allowed to run for a third term in office in 2016, ultimately leading to the election of Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton was simply not as likeable as Obama, something that wasn’t helped by the email scandal or her attack on republican supporters that had an affect on the middle ground. Obama, a much more liked public figure, would have surely retained the White House for a thir...

A 2023 Election Not To Be Ruled Out

  With the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party coalition now entering its third year of a maximum five-year term, many are of the opinion that the trio will ride out the rather undesirable polling figures and wait until the last possible moment to call another general election. Another common opinion is that an election will be called in the second half of 2024, how late in that half dependent on the results of the European and Local elections in May of that year. Both valid points, particularly the latter; a bumper budget in October, semi-decent canvassing weather, and pre-empting the inevitable winter healthcare crisis, all make for a workable scenario for the government parties. However, strategically speaking, taking those points and applying them to October 2023 may make more sense for Martin, Varadkar, and Ryan, should they be willing to gamble their final year of the term for the prospects of another five-year stint running Leinster House. Despite current polling having ...