Skip to main content

Kinda Home State Advantage

Home States can often favour the candidate that comes from there, but what happens when your home state is already a safe state?

This is the case with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who as you may have guessed from the headline, are battling it out for their 'kinda' home state.

Both of these candidates are from safe Blue States (Democrats), and because of this they have both decided to adopt a different home state for the purpose of the Presidential Election.

Last year Donald Trump, a lifelong New Yorker, moved his official primary address to Florida, a notorious swing state that he needs to win in order to retain the presidency.

Joe Biden is slightly different however, as the home state that he has adopted, is actually his home state. Biden was born and raised in Pennsylvania, but later went to college in Delaware, where he remained and represented as a Senator for over forty years.

New York and Delaware have consistently voted for the Democratic Party's candidate in recent elections, and are all but guaranteed to remain that way in November.

However these 'kinda' home states are very important to each candidate's respective campaign, and it looks like home advantage could prevail come election night. Though Pennsylvania should go with Biden by a decent margin, Florida could narrowly remain as a Red State. 

Narrow enough for a repeat of the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore ? That's not outside the realm of possibilities. 

This home state theory that both presidential candidates have clearly adopted, may make Kamala Harris a poor VP choice for Biden, as California is a safe Blue State by at least 10%, even on a bad day. While Trump's VP Mike Pence should keep his home state of Indiana relatively safe come November.

While Geography often isn't rated as a major issue for political campaigns, it is not irrelevant, and if home state matters, then there is certainly a deficiency in the Democrat's geographic spread, and it is a battle that the Republicans will have a good chance of winning.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Sinn Féin Pre-Election Analysis

  Operating off the recent in-depth RedC poll, while taking other recent polls into account, one thing is certain, Sinn Féin will have a time-machine on the top of their list to Santa if the election isn’t called before Christmas. It seems like it was only yesterday when the party was polling in the mid-30s, reaching a high of 36%, and seemed like a government in waiting if they managed to get some smaller parties and independents on board. What must have been a scramble for candidates to even get within a whiff of a majority, now some tough decisions will have to be made as to whether they will even run a second candidate in some constituencies. Keep in mind that in some constituencies where the polled well in 2020, and were polling very well in polls, such as Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan, and Louth, there were rumours of a third candidate being added in the 5-seater constituencies where they were polling close to 50% of the vote. When once there were talks of 60+ seats, now they...
Post a Comment
Read more

Book Review : Animal Farm by George Orwell

  BOOK REVIEW : ANIMAL FARM   There is no doubt that George Orwell’s classic Animal Farm will divide opinions depending on what side of the political spectrum that you stand on, and your understanding of late imperial and early soviet Russian history. I tried to put the historical reflection to the back of my mind while reading this book, and as a historian it was rather difficult. Some of the analogies were downright wrong, many were open to interpretation, and some were fair. What I gathered about the author from this read was that he was a diehard Trotskyist, eulogising the assassinated liberal-left ideologist in the form of Snowball the pig, and Communist leader Vladimir Lenin in the form of Major the pig; while vilifying Josef Stalin in his depiction as tyrant pig Napoleon. While the pigs represent Soviet leadership, the dogs represent the Soviet Army and Police, and the other animals the general workers of the USSR. I would argue that more time is spent vilify...
Post a Comment
Read more

Rebelling Against The 1% One Beer At A Time

If you're heading to the pub this weekend, then you may have an important choice to make, do you want to join a rebellion? Across Ireland, and indeed across many parts of the world, a beer revolution is taking place in the form of Craft Beer. Local breweries are popping up across the map, and are offering beer drinkers the chance to support business in their own areas. For many years the choice was between national or international beers, such as choosing between Guinness and Budweiser, but now many pubs have a choice between beers brewed by local entrepreneurs or big corporations. Local breweries produce small quantities of beer that are described as craft made, with special attention given to each batch, and the best part is that the profits go to local people, rather than to investors scattered around the globe. The idea of supporting local has many positives; it's more environmentally friendly as the beer is transported a very short distance, is supports local jobs, and...
Post a Comment
Read more