Skip to main content

Kinda Home State Advantage

Home States can often favour the candidate that comes from there, but what happens when your home state is already a safe state?

This is the case with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who as you may have guessed from the headline, are battling it out for their 'kinda' home state.

Both of these candidates are from safe Blue States (Democrats), and because of this they have both decided to adopt a different home state for the purpose of the Presidential Election.

Last year Donald Trump, a lifelong New Yorker, moved his official primary address to Florida, a notorious swing state that he needs to win in order to retain the presidency.

Joe Biden is slightly different however, as the home state that he has adopted, is actually his home state. Biden was born and raised in Pennsylvania, but later went to college in Delaware, where he remained and represented as a Senator for over forty years.

New York and Delaware have consistently voted for the Democratic Party's candidate in recent elections, and are all but guaranteed to remain that way in November.

However these 'kinda' home states are very important to each candidate's respective campaign, and it looks like home advantage could prevail come election night. Though Pennsylvania should go with Biden by a decent margin, Florida could narrowly remain as a Red State. 

Narrow enough for a repeat of the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore ? That's not outside the realm of possibilities. 

This home state theory that both presidential candidates have clearly adopted, may make Kamala Harris a poor VP choice for Biden, as California is a safe Blue State by at least 10%, even on a bad day. While Trump's VP Mike Pence should keep his home state of Indiana relatively safe come November.

While Geography often isn't rated as a major issue for political campaigns, it is not irrelevant, and if home state matters, then there is certainly a deficiency in the Democrat's geographic spread, and it is a battle that the Republicans will have a good chance of winning.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Sinn Féin Pre-Election Analysis

  Operating off the recent in-depth RedC poll, while taking other recent polls into account, one thing is certain, Sinn Féin will have a time-machine on the top of their list to Santa if the election isn’t called before Christmas. It seems like it was only yesterday when the party was polling in the mid-30s, reaching a high of 36%, and seemed like a government in waiting if they managed to get some smaller parties and independents on board. What must have been a scramble for candidates to even get within a whiff of a majority, now some tough decisions will have to be made as to whether they will even run a second candidate in some constituencies. Keep in mind that in some constituencies where the polled well in 2020, and were polling very well in polls, such as Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan, and Louth, there were rumours of a third candidate being added in the 5-seater constituencies where they were polling close to 50% of the vote. When once there were talks of 60+ seats, now they...
Post a Comment
Read more

A 2023 Election Not To Be Ruled Out

  With the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party coalition now entering its third year of a maximum five-year term, many are of the opinion that the trio will ride out the rather undesirable polling figures and wait until the last possible moment to call another general election. Another common opinion is that an election will be called in the second half of 2024, how late in that half dependent on the results of the European and Local elections in May of that year. Both valid points, particularly the latter; a bumper budget in October, semi-decent canvassing weather, and pre-empting the inevitable winter healthcare crisis, all make for a workable scenario for the government parties. However, strategically speaking, taking those points and applying them to October 2023 may make more sense for Martin, Varadkar, and Ryan, should they be willing to gamble their final year of the term for the prospects of another five-year stint running Leinster House. Despite current polling having ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Biden Allowed Trump To Pay So Little Taxes

Joe Biden has come out with an unsurprising attack on Donald Trump for paying just $750 in Federal Income Tax, with reports that Trump paid virtually no FIT for the 10-15 years prior, due to bad business affairs. And while it is an unfair system that sees Trump and other millionaires pay so little tax, it must be pointed out that in 2016 Joe Biden was the Vice President of the USA. He has been the VP since 2008, which is possibly the last time Trump paid FIT, though more details will surely come out over the coming weeks. Joe Biden has spent 8 years as VP, and decades as a Senator, overseeing the various tax loopholes that allow millionaires and billionaires to get away without paying their fair share of taxes. Yet here he is today saying that millionaires and billionaires need to pay their fair share of taxes. Joe has had ample time to ensure that the super-wealthy pay "their fair share", but has decided to wait until little over a month before the Pr...
Post a Comment
Read more