The Race To Fill RBG's Seat

Republicans haven't paused to mourn the loss of the most iconic figure in the US judicial system, and appear to be gearing up to fill the seat of Ruth Bader Ginsburg before November's election. Come November we may see Democrats take control of all three pillars of American Democracy, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Presidency.

And while the presidency lasts four years, there is no term limit for members of the US Supreme Court, with a vacancy only arising from a retirement or a death in office. So whoever is selected to replace RBG on the Supreme Court is likely to serve fifteen to twenty years on the role.

In order to be selected to sit on the SC, a person has to be nominated by the President and approved by the Senate, both of which are currently held by Republicans. But that may not be the case after November, with there being a fair chance of Dems winning both races.

Justice Ginsburg's passing has changed the dynamic of the SC, with it now being evenly split between Liberals and Conservatives, 4-4, in the nine seat court. Trump is no doubt eager to fill the vacancy before his term ends, and transform the SC into a conservative body for the forseeable future, with a conservative advantage of 5-4.

Whether this comes to pass before November remains to be seen, but has the potential to affect the USA more than the Presidential Elections. A Conservative SC could prevent the Democrats from making reforms on major social issues such as Gun Control, which is based on the SC's interpretation of the Second Amendment, and could also reverse previous decisions on Abortion and Same Sex Marriage, if a challenge is brought before them.

But Trump is still the President of the USA, and it is well within his remit to nominate a replacement justice, no matter how close he is to the end of his term. Though he may be hesitant himself to nominate a new person, after the controversy that was caused when he nominated Brett Kavanaugh. It would certainly become the main talking point of the Election and whether that would work in Trump's or Biden's favour would remain to be seen. The ball is now in Trump's court as to whether or not he wants to nominate a replacement before the end of his term.

Comments

What's The Beef With Beef ?

The Irish Beef Industry has been going through turbulent times recently, most notably because of the proposed Mercosur deal and the prices farmers receive for their cattle. We haven't even reached Brexit yet, and are still weeks out from the latest withdrawal deadline, and beef farmers are at their wits end. But how has it got to this and can farmers cope if there is a no-deal Brexit? Farmers' incomes are under threat, not just because of the reasons outlined above, but also because of the threat to grants which keep small and medium farms in business. The recent EU elections have seen the status quo remain in the European Parliament, with parties of the right keeping their large dominance of the union. There has been some debate surrounding the EU's agricultural plan over the course of the previous five year parliament, particularly regarding the EU's farm subsidy. Now that the elections are over, the EU government could proceed with plans which could see a standard ...

A 2023 Election Not To Be Ruled Out

With the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party coalition now entering its third year of a maximum five-year term, many are of the opinion that the trio will ride out the rather undesirable polling figures and wait until the last possible moment to call another general election. Another common opinion is that an election will be called in the second half of 2024, how late in that half dependent on the results of the European and Local elections in May of that year. Both valid points, particularly the latter; a bumper budget in October, semi-decent canvassing weather, and pre-empting the inevitable winter healthcare crisis, all make for a workable scenario for the government parties. However, strategically speaking, taking those points and applying them to October 2023 may make more sense for Martin, Varadkar, and Ryan, should they be willing to gamble their final year of the term for the prospects of another five-year stint running Leinster House. Despite current polling having ...

Omaha Could Be Key To Trump Victory

It's no secret that Joe Biden has been slipping every so slightly in the polls in the past few weeks, particularly after the RNC. But Biden's weakening in the polls could present itself as an opportunity for the city of Omaha, Nebraska, to really make a name for itself. As it stands Biden hold a narrow lead over Trump in the city that sits on the Missouri River, which divides Nebraska and Iowa, but over the next few weeks eyes may begin to focus here. Nebraska is one of only two US States which allocates its Electoral College votes on a district basis (Maine being the other), and this gives the city of Omaha 1 EC vote out of 538. Doesn't seem like much right? But as Biden has begin to drop in the polls, pundits have began to talk about the phenomenon that is a Presidential tie, 269-269. And unless Biden turns up the heat over the course of the debates (if they do go ahead) , this possibility becomes to look more like a probability. Sure this is all depending on ...

Séighin Ó Ceallaigh

Search This Blog