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Election 2020 - Prediction

 


While we may be at the eve of the long anticipated 2020 US Presidential Election, we could be quite a bit off knowing the exact results. It is estimated that it could take weeks for counting to be completed in some states, though I reckon that it will only be a couple of days before we know who will be the next US President. Most competitive states should have a large portion of their votes counted on election day, with Florida expected to be fully complete, and while some states could take some time, I don't think that anyone will be too concerned about the wait to see who wins Maryland or Utah, as these as solid Democrat and Republican states respectively.

Key states that we may be waiting for are Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, as they will likely be very close. This is why I have them in a lighter colour on my prediction map above from 270towin.com, which allows you to explore the possible routes to the required 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency. 

To get things started, the states in Red I predict will go to Donald Trump, the states in Light Red I also predict Trump but they will be a very close race. The same goes for Blue states and Joe Biden. The exceptions here are the two lines that you will see going through Nebraska and Maine of a differing colour to the main state colour. This is because both states separate their EC votes into district votes, and these can often be bypassed by pollers due to the smaller polling base, though indications are that Nebraska's 2nd District will vote for Biden, and Maine's 2nd will vote for Trump.

So here I break down some of the key states to keep an eye on while the results start to come in, and how I predict these states will go.

ARIZONA - Biden has held a small but consistent lead over Trump in this former safe Red state, with the help of the McCains. The late Senator John McCain was no friend of the president's, especially when Trump called him a 'loser' for being captured and detained in a POW camp during the Vietnam War. A war Trump fortuitously had 'bone spurs' during. If you want to win a state, don't badmouth that state's beloved senator. - Votes Biden

NEBRASKA 2ND DISTRICT - Previously I had written about how this 1-vote district could become the focal point of the election. Even recently Trump made a stop here in Omaha City to try secure that solitary vote. Back when polls were a bit closer nationally and there was time for Trump to turn things around, that one vote could have won the presidency, though now it has become almost irrelevant. - Votes Biden

THE RUST BELT - The key to Donald Trump's 2016 victory is almost guaranteed to see Biden over the line. With strong, consistent polling over the past few months, it wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan supported Biden over Trump with a double-digit margin. - Votes Biden

TEXAS - The Red state almost went pink on this map, but a pick up in support for Trump over the past few weeks has led me to attribute Red status for the Lone Star state. Shifting demographics in Texas, immigration, the growth of liberalism in urban centres, as well as a mass exodus from LA over a number of issues, could see the Red State turn Blue in years to come. - Votes Trump

PENNSYLVANIA - It looks like Biden using the word Scranton to finish every sentence, like a soldier used the word 'over', has worked for the former Vice-President. Despite spending his entire adult life in Delaware, he conveniently chose to become a Pennsylvanian for this election, something which will almost certainly see him pick up the state's 20 EC votes. (See earlier post on Kinda Home State Advantage.) - Votes Biden

GEORGIA & NORTH CAROLINA - The two big surprises for the 2020 election, and so I doubled up on this one, are states that last year nobody would have thought would go Blue. They are very tight margins, and up until recently I would have categorised them as pretty safe Republican states, though now they have been assigned pink. I still think that they will go to Trump, but don't be surprised if there is a re-count, or if we are waiting until the last vote is counted before this state is declared. - Votes Trump

FLORIDA - A notorious swing state, particularly after the 2000 election result and recount between Al Gore and George W Bush, a small but consistent lead in the polls for Biden narrowly gives him the edge. Trump is guaranteed at least one vote, from himself as he switched his voting state (see Kinda Home State Advantage) and it may just come down to small numbers. On a positive note we should have this result on election night (avoiding a recount), and Florida's 29 EC votes will be decided. - Votes Biden

MAINE 2ND DISTRICT - As with Nebraska's 2nd District, this one vote is likely to be irrelevant in the election, and has been bypassed by a lot of polls. Given the urban-rural divide that seems to be in place in Maine, this district will likely go to Trump, though don't be surprised if the North-East is a solid shade of Blue on election night.

So from these figures we can see that it is almost impossible for Trump to win a second term in the Oval Office, unless he manages to win every closely contested state and district, and then flip a state in the Rust Belt. Even if he manages to flip the closest safe Blue State, which in my opinion is Nevada, he still won't win a second term, as that has only 6 EC votes. Trump's best case scenario leaves him ten EC votes shy of the Presidency.

So unless between now and the closing of polls, Joe Biden declares that he supports ISIS and will erect a statue of Fidel Castro outside Capitol Hill, Trump will not be in the Oval Office next spring. So I'm going to be going to bed early on Tuesday night, and get up that little bit earlier to tune into the results. This is not a repeat of 2016, this is not an edge of your seat political moment, this is a formality before Joe Biden is sworn into office.

Final Result - Joe Biden 319 - 219 Donald Trump



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