Skip to main content

DUP's Attempt To Avoid Election Disaster

 



DUP First Minister Paul Givan has announced his upcoming resignation as FM, resulting in the automatic resignation of his Sinn Féin counterpart, Michelle O'Neill, and bringing forward the prospect of an early election.

It appears to be a co-ordinated and meticulously planned attempt to derail ongoing Brexit negotiations, which could see a permanent customs border in the Irish Sea. Firstly, DUP Minister for Agriculture, Edwin Poots, who himself is desperately trying to save his political career after failing to gain the party nomination in South Down for the next election, issued an order for checks to end on goods coming from Britain. It was a move with little substance, and wouldn’t take much of a legal challenge for it to be overruled.

But the DUP didn’t hang around on this issue, and almost immediately used it as an excuse to trigger the collapse of the Northern Assembly, a last-ditch attempt to save the DUP, who are being closely chased by two other unionist parties in the polls, the UUP and TUV. Depending on how constituency battles fare out, the DUP may have been overtaken as the second largest party in the Assembly by the UUP.

Had they held out until May, there is a strong likelihood that Sinn Féin would have become the largest party in Stormont, thus acquiring the First Minister title. The titles of First Minister and Deputy First Minister, were always supposed to be equal, but it appears that they have become far from that now that the DUP risk losing the title to SF. There is also the possibility that the DUP would have even lost the Deputy First Minister title, before the even had the chance to accept or reject it, with the party pretty much neck and neck in the polls with their unionist counterparts the Ulster Unionist Party, though it only contests elections in six of Ulster’s nine counties.

It is yet to be seen if the polls reflect any change in the unionist vote with this week’s political manoeuvre, but the hope will be that the DUP will claw back some of the support they lost to the UUP and TUV, something that was unlikely had they waited until the upcoming elections scheduled for May.

So with Poots' move played, and the scenario that unfolded, now both of the largest parties have called for an early election, which is a safer bet for Sinn Fein than the DUP. SF are close to ten points clear in the polls of the next largest party, so why wait? The DUP on the other hand, would be going into an election in the hopes that this orchestrated move will have boosted their numbers enough to remain the largest party in the Assembly, though perhaps they would settle with just being the largest unionist party.

As to whether that would be enough to see the DUP return to power-sharing is another matter entirely, with leader Jeffrey Donaldson stating that if the protocol remains, it would be difficult for the executive to get back up and running. Though perhaps it would also matter if the First Minister of that new executive was a republican or a unionist.


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Sinn Féin Pre-Election Analysis

  Operating off the recent in-depth RedC poll, while taking other recent polls into account, one thing is certain, Sinn Féin will have a time-machine on the top of their list to Santa if the election isn’t called before Christmas. It seems like it was only yesterday when the party was polling in the mid-30s, reaching a high of 36%, and seemed like a government in waiting if they managed to get some smaller parties and independents on board. What must have been a scramble for candidates to even get within a whiff of a majority, now some tough decisions will have to be made as to whether they will even run a second candidate in some constituencies. Keep in mind that in some constituencies where the polled well in 2020, and were polling very well in polls, such as Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan, and Louth, there were rumours of a third candidate being added in the 5-seater constituencies where they were polling close to 50% of the vote. When once there were talks of 60+ seats, now they...

Putin Brings Term Limits Into Question

Love him, hate him, or simply don't care about him, Vladimir Putin will be allowed to serve as President of Russia for the foreseeable future. But one thing that many sensationalist headlines are ignoring, is that he actually has to be elected to continue in his role as the Russian head of state. Whether you think Russia has fair elections or not, it brings a broader question into the fore; should political term limits even exist? Let’s move west of the Kremlin, and think about this political situation with some leaders who are more favourable to westerners than the beast from the east. Barack Obama was not allowed to run for a third term in office in 2016, ultimately leading to the election of Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton was simply not as likeable as Obama, something that wasn’t helped by the email scandal or her attack on republican supporters that had an affect on the middle ground. Obama, a much more liked public figure, would have surely retained the White House for a thir...

A 2023 Election Not To Be Ruled Out

  With the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party coalition now entering its third year of a maximum five-year term, many are of the opinion that the trio will ride out the rather undesirable polling figures and wait until the last possible moment to call another general election. Another common opinion is that an election will be called in the second half of 2024, how late in that half dependent on the results of the European and Local elections in May of that year. Both valid points, particularly the latter; a bumper budget in October, semi-decent canvassing weather, and pre-empting the inevitable winter healthcare crisis, all make for a workable scenario for the government parties. However, strategically speaking, taking those points and applying them to October 2023 may make more sense for Martin, Varadkar, and Ryan, should they be willing to gamble their final year of the term for the prospects of another five-year stint running Leinster House. Despite current polling having ...