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DUP's Attempt To Avoid Election Disaster

 



DUP First Minister Paul Givan has announced his upcoming resignation as FM, resulting in the automatic resignation of his Sinn Féin counterpart, Michelle O'Neill, and bringing forward the prospect of an early election.

It appears to be a co-ordinated and meticulously planned attempt to derail ongoing Brexit negotiations, which could see a permanent customs border in the Irish Sea. Firstly, DUP Minister for Agriculture, Edwin Poots, who himself is desperately trying to save his political career after failing to gain the party nomination in South Down for the next election, issued an order for checks to end on goods coming from Britain. It was a move with little substance, and wouldn’t take much of a legal challenge for it to be overruled.

But the DUP didn’t hang around on this issue, and almost immediately used it as an excuse to trigger the collapse of the Northern Assembly, a last-ditch attempt to save the DUP, who are being closely chased by two other unionist parties in the polls, the UUP and TUV. Depending on how constituency battles fare out, the DUP may have been overtaken as the second largest party in the Assembly by the UUP.

Had they held out until May, there is a strong likelihood that Sinn Féin would have become the largest party in Stormont, thus acquiring the First Minister title. The titles of First Minister and Deputy First Minister, were always supposed to be equal, but it appears that they have become far from that now that the DUP risk losing the title to SF. There is also the possibility that the DUP would have even lost the Deputy First Minister title, before the even had the chance to accept or reject it, with the party pretty much neck and neck in the polls with their unionist counterparts the Ulster Unionist Party, though it only contests elections in six of Ulster’s nine counties.

It is yet to be seen if the polls reflect any change in the unionist vote with this week’s political manoeuvre, but the hope will be that the DUP will claw back some of the support they lost to the UUP and TUV, something that was unlikely had they waited until the upcoming elections scheduled for May.

So with Poots' move played, and the scenario that unfolded, now both of the largest parties have called for an early election, which is a safer bet for Sinn Fein than the DUP. SF are close to ten points clear in the polls of the next largest party, so why wait? The DUP on the other hand, would be going into an election in the hopes that this orchestrated move will have boosted their numbers enough to remain the largest party in the Assembly, though perhaps they would settle with just being the largest unionist party.

As to whether that would be enough to see the DUP return to power-sharing is another matter entirely, with leader Jeffrey Donaldson stating that if the protocol remains, it would be difficult for the executive to get back up and running. Though perhaps it would also matter if the First Minister of that new executive was a republican or a unionist.


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