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A 2023 Election Not To Be Ruled Out

 



With the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party coalition now entering its third year of a maximum five-year term, many are of the opinion that the trio will ride out the rather undesirable polling figures and wait until the last possible moment to call another general election. Another common opinion is that an election will be called in the second half of 2024, how late in that half dependent on the results of the European and Local elections in May of that year.

Both valid points, particularly the latter; a bumper budget in October, semi-decent canvassing weather, and pre-empting the inevitable winter healthcare crisis, all make for a workable scenario for the government parties. However, strategically speaking, taking those points and applying them to October 2023 may make more sense for Martin, Varadkar, and Ryan, should they be willing to gamble their final year of the term for the prospects of another five-year stint running Leinster House.

Despite current polling having the three parties’ combined vote equating to a little short of a majority, government’s aren’t formed based on total votes, they are formed by electing TDs. Leaving aside the prospects of constituency redrawing, which could see an additional 10-20 TDs elected to the Dáil, the current government parties find themselves around the range of seats required to secure power, albeit by the skin of their teeth, and possibly requiring the addition of Labour, Social Democrats, or Independents to survive rebellious backbenchers or slaps on the wrists of the odd TD who gets caught up in a scandal.

But the government should know that unless something drastic changes over the coming year and a half to two years, this is as good as it’s going to get. If they take their Dáil blinkers off, they may come to see that 2023 would be a good year for them to run in terms of the Oireachtas, and possibly local authorities, as well as their parties as a whole.

In 2019 all three parties received a resounding endorsement from the Irish electorate, which would go on to be semi-rescinded in the general election of early 2020. That victory is still benefitting them with councillors on the ground in their local communities, keeping the parish pump well oiled, and a large majority in the Seanad vote of 2020, and possibly 2023/2024.

Should they lose a GE in 2023, they would be guaranteed to retain control of the Seanad, even with a Sinn Féin Taoiseach’s nominations. Should government TDs lose their seats in 2023, they would be campaigning for a council seat with a large profile, a council seat that could keep them ticking over until the next opportunity arose to reclaim that Dáil seat.

With just eighty councillors, Sinn Féin would be at a disadvantage this side of the local elections. The other side of it, they could easily triple their representation in local authorities, resulting in at least a dozen Senators, possibly in the twenties if deals are struck down the ballot.

If an election is held by the end of the year, a Sinn Féin government is still possible, but they would be thwarted by a Seanad held by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. If it is held after the 2024 local elections, they will likely have 150-200 additional councillors laying the groundwork to take both houses of the Oireachtas for the first time in the history of the state.

 

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