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Sinn Féin Pre-Election Analysis

  Operating off the recent in-depth RedC poll, while taking other recent polls into account, one thing is certain, Sinn Féin will have a time-machine on the top of their list to Santa if the election isn’t called before Christmas. It seems like it was only yesterday when the party was polling in the mid-30s, reaching a high of 36%, and seemed like a government in waiting if they managed to get some smaller parties and independents on board. What must have been a scramble for candidates to even get within a whiff of a majority, now some tough decisions will have to be made as to whether they will even run a second candidate in some constituencies. Keep in mind that in some constituencies where the polled well in 2020, and were polling very well in polls, such as Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan, and Louth, there were rumours of a third candidate being added in the 5-seater constituencies where they were polling close to 50% of the vote. When once there were talks of 60+ seats, now they are
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Schrodinger’s Election: Can an election be both good and bad at the same time?

  Two elections took place in Ireland last Friday (Three in Limerick, which also had its first Mayoral Election), but you would be forgiven for thinking that there were in fact four or more. Depending on who you asked, a variety of parties had both a good and bad day at the polls. Unlike Schrodinger’s Cat, the parties remain very much alive, though some more alive than others, with none actually licking their wounds. We knew much of the results of the local elections by Sunday evening, apart from the epic count in Newbridge which saw four re-counts and neither candidate involved being elected. They key result, which we knew on Saturday night, was the national result. By the time the weekend came to an end, we knew that there was a correlation between the local and EU results, in terms of party polling at least. Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew MP conceded a little early, but was quick to change her mind and put herself back in contention for a seat, which she was. Fine Gael leader Si
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Attendance Will Decide ‘Eviction Ban’ Vote

  Attendance Will Decide ‘Eviction Ban’ Vote   Since its election and formation in 2020, the Irish Government of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party, have been pretty comfortable in the knowledge that with some compromise within their own ranks, their legislation will pass through the Dáil. With the reliable support coming from the Independent benches, their slim majority is usually not questioned. However today we will see that majority reliant upon attendance, rather than political dealings. At least one Green Party TD will be jumping ship for this vote, the ever outspoken, rarely defiant, Neasa Hourigan. Independents that can be persuaded with the occasional post office or community centre in their constituencies, and have previous ties with either FF or FG, now seem to be hesitant when it comes to aligning themselves with the two, and some have said that they will be voting against them. This particular issue, the ending of the eviction ban, has become toxic in the
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Sturgeon May Have Jumped Before She Was Pushed

Sturgeon May Have Jumped Before She Was Pushed   For almost a decade Nicola Sturgeon had led her party, the SNP, and the Scottish Parliament, but today she has announced her resignation. It has come to a shock to most, considering the SNP’s dominance in Scotland, but tougher times were ahead for her and her party. It is admirable of her to stand down for the sake of her party, as she told the media, but why exactly did she feel the need to have the SNP select a new leader? For the last few months the Labour surge has arrived north of the border, and it has been at the expense of the SNP, though they should comfortably retain their political prominence in the next Westminster election next year, and the Scottish election in 2026. However, their dominance will be dented if polling is anything to go by. Go back a year or so, and both Labour and the Conservatives were hovering around the 20% mark, often in the high teens; while the SNP saw many polls where they exceeded 50% support. Now in
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Varadkar & Martin Will Be Cautious Of Green Pact

  Varadkar & Martin Will Be Cautious Of Green Pact   In the lead up to the 2020 General Election, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were neck and neck in the polls, both vying for the leadership of the nation, hopeful that it would not require the other to do so, not in terms of a coalition at least. That did end up playing out, with Fianna Fáil narrowly beating Fine Gael in terms of seats. What was unanticipated however, was that Sinn Féin would elect the most TDs. The hopes of another ‘confidence and supply’ agreement, possibly with the reversal of roles, were dashed, and FF and FG were forced to go into government with each other for the first time in both of their histories. They didn’t exactly form a government based on leading parties, with the role of Taoiseach rotating between the two party leaders. There was a minor party in government with them though, the Green Party, who look set to face the ‘smaller government party’ slump in the next general election, possibly only re
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Ireland’s Deer Problem Is Man-Made

  With deer-season well underway, many Irish hunters are out and about harvesting food for their families, but as is evident in recent weeks, the numbers aren’t nearly high enough. Across Ireland local politicians and community activists have made their voices heard in relation to the problem of the overpopulation of deer. It’s a pity that these politicians, and particularly national ones, didn’t seem to care about the creation of this problem during the Covid-19 lockdowns, where this story begins. One of the most bizarre rules enforced by the government, was that it was illegal to hunt during hunting season, the one time per year when deer numbers can be lowered. Today we see the effects of prohibiting the annual opportunity to keep our deer population under control. Ireland has no natural predators, and thus it is up to the hunters of Ireland to manage our deer population. The benefits of management are not just to protect our national food supply and agricultural sector, nor jus
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A 2023 Election Not To Be Ruled Out

  With the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party coalition now entering its third year of a maximum five-year term, many are of the opinion that the trio will ride out the rather undesirable polling figures and wait until the last possible moment to call another general election. Another common opinion is that an election will be called in the second half of 2024, how late in that half dependent on the results of the European and Local elections in May of that year. Both valid points, particularly the latter; a bumper budget in October, semi-decent canvassing weather, and pre-empting the inevitable winter healthcare crisis, all make for a workable scenario for the government parties. However, strategically speaking, taking those points and applying them to October 2023 may make more sense for Martin, Varadkar, and Ryan, should they be willing to gamble their final year of the term for the prospects of another five-year stint running Leinster House. Despite current polling having the
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