Attendance Will Decide ‘Eviction Ban’ Vote

Since its election and formation in 2020, the Irish Government of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party, have been pretty comfortable in the knowledge that with some compromise within their own ranks, their legislation will pass through the Dáil. With the reliable support coming from the Independent benches, their slim majority is usually not questioned.

However today we will see that majority reliant upon attendance, rather than political dealings. At least one Green Party TD will be jumping ship for this vote, the ever outspoken, rarely defiant, Neasa Hourigan. Independents that can be persuaded with the occasional post office or community centre in their constituencies, and have previous ties with either FF or FG, now seem to be hesitant when it comes to aligning themselves with the two, and some have said that they will be voting against them.

This particular issue, the ending of the eviction ban, has become toxic in the public sphere, very much seen as one side versus the other. Whoever votes to end the eviction ban in the middle of a worsening housing crisis, will be seen as favouring the elite, whoever votes to keep the eviction ban will be seen as favouring the worker. Regardless of the nuance and amendments and compromises that may come, this is how this vote will be portrayed thanks to the rigidness of the government parties.

It will come to no surprise to many, that some politicians may find themselves ‘unavailable’, ‘sick’, or having ‘prior engagements’, when it comes to this divisive vote, where abstaining will likely be viewed by both sides with disgust. I would estimate that this vote would pass, somewhere in the 85-75 region, were there full attendance. But with the easiest option, particularly for government TDs in areas severely impacted by government housing policy, being to simply not show up, we could well see this vote come down to tiny margins.

The question is, will the opposition turn up? Even one or two TDs missing this vote for genuine reasons will scupper any chances for the eviction ban to remain in place, never mind Independents or even TDs belonging to parties, not showing up for strategic reasons.

The best way to predict the outcome of this vote, will be to look at the benches of Leinster Houses and see just how many from each side happen to be ‘as láthair’.

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