With the shambles that is Brexit dominating headlines across Europe as the latest withdrawal deadline approaches, anything can happen. We saw the British Parliament dissolve, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson lose his majority and a chunk of support from within his own party, and Westminster agreeing to take 'No Deal' off the table. With all of this uncertainty there's a chance the we could see a General Election held in Britain, though the opposition in the House of Commons seems to have united for the time being to avert a No Deal Brexit.
A General Election in Britain will also involve a General Election in the North of Ireland, which is still under British rule, and there has been a lot of speculation regarding an Anti-Brexit Alliance forming for a GE in the North. Using previous opinion polls, how constituencies voted for Brexit, and the candidates themselves, I will predict the outcome of a straight up Pro-Brexit vs Anti-Brexit GE in the North.
The Pro-Brexit Alliance for this article will be the same as the 2017 GE Alliance between the DUP and UUP, while the Anti-Brexit Alliance will include Sinn Féin, SDLP, and Alliance. Other parties or individuals may join either side, however this doesn't seem likely and wouldn't have a significant impact on the prediction. For example PBP have ran in two constituencies in 2016 where they achieved a respectable vote, but the constituencies (Foyle and West Belfast) are dominated by another party or parties (Sinn Féin or SDLP).
With that context I will write about each of the 18 constituencies below.
Antrim East - While the ABA could outpoll the DUP, no doubt with an Alliance candidate, an election pact with the UUP would see Sammy Wilson returned comfortably. (DUP Retain)
Antrim North - Ian Paisley Jr could go on holiday to Sri Lanka instead of campaigning and still get elected. This constituency voted to leave the EU by over 60% and is a secure DUP seat. (DUP Retain)
Antrim South - Leave only barely edged the win in this constituency during the Brexit vote, but this DUP seat would almost certainly be taken by Alliance in the event of Sinn Féin and SDLP candidates not standing. Even without an ABA, Alliance could still very well take this seat. (Alliance Gain)
Belfast East - A narrow victory for Leave in 2016, but a huge victory for the DUP in the GE, which was essentially a two horse race even without an ABA. Alliance would have a tough job taking the seat but it's not impossible. (DUP Retain)
Belfast North - Usually a close race between Sinn Féin and the DUP, with the latter usually just about taking the seat. An ABA this time around, as well as an excellent candidate in John Finucane, a solicitor, Mayor of Belfast, and rumoured Presidential candidate for Sinn Féin, should see the seat change hands. (Sinn Féin Gain)
Belfast South - The real battle for this constituency will take place long before polling day. An ABA candidate will certainly take this seat, the only question being which one, with Sinn Féin, SDLP, and Alliance receiving good votes in 2017. The stagnant SDLP will most likely relinquish this seat to Alliance who have gained popularity, but not without a fight as this is the SDLP's only chance of a seat. (Alliance Gain)
Belfast West - Even a combined effort from the two Brexit parties in the constituency (DUP and PBP), Sinn Fein's candidate (most likely current MP Paul Maskey) should poll in excess of 60% of the vote. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Derry East - A Remain constituency, a straight race between PBA and a ABA would be a close battle, but an Alliance candidate could take the seat, whereas should an ABA select Sinn Féin to run for the seat it may not make the cut. While most constituents voted to remain in the EU, there is a unionist majority. Alliance could chip away at the DUP and UUP votes, while Sinn Féin would struggle to convert any of these parties' voters. While Sinn Féin is the second biggest party, after the DUP, an Alliance candidate could win the seat for an Anti Brexit Alliance. (DUP Retain)
Down North - One of the few East Coast constituencies to vote Remain, current MP Sylvia Hermon, an independent unionist, backed her constituents' decision and should comfortably be returned, even without an ABA. (IND Retain)
Down South - A constituency where we will see a PBA, but with little effect. Sinn Féin's Chris Hazzard should comfortably retain this seat. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Fermanagh/South Tyrone - A two horse race in 2017 between Sinn Féin and UUP, and the result would be repeated in the same fashion in a GE. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Foyle - 2017 saw Sinn Féin take this seat from the SDLP by less than 200 votes, Sinn Féin could at the very least add a zero to that figure after two years of representation from Elisha McCallion. (Sinn Féin Retain).
Lagan Valley - A Leave constituency, with a huge unionist majority, should return the DUP by a massive margin. (DUP Retain).
Mid-Ulster - A Sinn Féin stronghold which should see veteran Francie Molloy comfortably retain his seat with a majority of votes, even without an ABA. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Newry/Armagh - Sinn Féin should see an increase in their vote in this constituency, particularly given that it is known for its demonstrations against Brexit and a hard border. They should take in excess of 50%, even without an ABA. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Strangford - A unionist Leave constituency, the DUP should win the seat with at least 50% of the vote. (DUP Retain)
Tyrone West - Following the resignation of sitting Sinn Féin MP Barry McElduff, the party's youngest MP Órfhlaith Begley easily won the by-election in 2018 and has proven herself to be a vital asset to the Sinn Féin team of MPs. A border constituency which voted 67% Remain should see Begley easily elected without any cross party co-operation. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Upper Bann - This would be a constituency which would probably become a two horse race between a PBA and ABA, with the DUP and Sinn Féin likely to go head to head. Though the result could be quite close, the DUP should take the seat. (DUP Retain)
Total/Iomlán :
Sinn Féin - 8 (+1)
DUP - 7 (-3)
Alliance - 2 (+2)
Ind - 1 (NC)
A General Election in Britain will also involve a General Election in the North of Ireland, which is still under British rule, and there has been a lot of speculation regarding an Anti-Brexit Alliance forming for a GE in the North. Using previous opinion polls, how constituencies voted for Brexit, and the candidates themselves, I will predict the outcome of a straight up Pro-Brexit vs Anti-Brexit GE in the North.
The Pro-Brexit Alliance for this article will be the same as the 2017 GE Alliance between the DUP and UUP, while the Anti-Brexit Alliance will include Sinn Féin, SDLP, and Alliance. Other parties or individuals may join either side, however this doesn't seem likely and wouldn't have a significant impact on the prediction. For example PBP have ran in two constituencies in 2016 where they achieved a respectable vote, but the constituencies (Foyle and West Belfast) are dominated by another party or parties (Sinn Féin or SDLP).
With that context I will write about each of the 18 constituencies below.
Antrim East - While the ABA could outpoll the DUP, no doubt with an Alliance candidate, an election pact with the UUP would see Sammy Wilson returned comfortably. (DUP Retain)
Antrim North - Ian Paisley Jr could go on holiday to Sri Lanka instead of campaigning and still get elected. This constituency voted to leave the EU by over 60% and is a secure DUP seat. (DUP Retain)
Antrim South - Leave only barely edged the win in this constituency during the Brexit vote, but this DUP seat would almost certainly be taken by Alliance in the event of Sinn Féin and SDLP candidates not standing. Even without an ABA, Alliance could still very well take this seat. (Alliance Gain)
Belfast East - A narrow victory for Leave in 2016, but a huge victory for the DUP in the GE, which was essentially a two horse race even without an ABA. Alliance would have a tough job taking the seat but it's not impossible. (DUP Retain)
Belfast North - Usually a close race between Sinn Féin and the DUP, with the latter usually just about taking the seat. An ABA this time around, as well as an excellent candidate in John Finucane, a solicitor, Mayor of Belfast, and rumoured Presidential candidate for Sinn Féin, should see the seat change hands. (Sinn Féin Gain)
Belfast South - The real battle for this constituency will take place long before polling day. An ABA candidate will certainly take this seat, the only question being which one, with Sinn Féin, SDLP, and Alliance receiving good votes in 2017. The stagnant SDLP will most likely relinquish this seat to Alliance who have gained popularity, but not without a fight as this is the SDLP's only chance of a seat. (Alliance Gain)
Belfast West - Even a combined effort from the two Brexit parties in the constituency (DUP and PBP), Sinn Fein's candidate (most likely current MP Paul Maskey) should poll in excess of 60% of the vote. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Derry East - A Remain constituency, a straight race between PBA and a ABA would be a close battle, but an Alliance candidate could take the seat, whereas should an ABA select Sinn Féin to run for the seat it may not make the cut. While most constituents voted to remain in the EU, there is a unionist majority. Alliance could chip away at the DUP and UUP votes, while Sinn Féin would struggle to convert any of these parties' voters. While Sinn Féin is the second biggest party, after the DUP, an Alliance candidate could win the seat for an Anti Brexit Alliance. (DUP Retain)
Down North - One of the few East Coast constituencies to vote Remain, current MP Sylvia Hermon, an independent unionist, backed her constituents' decision and should comfortably be returned, even without an ABA. (IND Retain)
Down South - A constituency where we will see a PBA, but with little effect. Sinn Féin's Chris Hazzard should comfortably retain this seat. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Fermanagh/South Tyrone - A two horse race in 2017 between Sinn Féin and UUP, and the result would be repeated in the same fashion in a GE. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Foyle - 2017 saw Sinn Féin take this seat from the SDLP by less than 200 votes, Sinn Féin could at the very least add a zero to that figure after two years of representation from Elisha McCallion. (Sinn Féin Retain).
Lagan Valley - A Leave constituency, with a huge unionist majority, should return the DUP by a massive margin. (DUP Retain).
Mid-Ulster - A Sinn Féin stronghold which should see veteran Francie Molloy comfortably retain his seat with a majority of votes, even without an ABA. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Newry/Armagh - Sinn Féin should see an increase in their vote in this constituency, particularly given that it is known for its demonstrations against Brexit and a hard border. They should take in excess of 50%, even without an ABA. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Strangford - A unionist Leave constituency, the DUP should win the seat with at least 50% of the vote. (DUP Retain)
Tyrone West - Following the resignation of sitting Sinn Féin MP Barry McElduff, the party's youngest MP Órfhlaith Begley easily won the by-election in 2018 and has proven herself to be a vital asset to the Sinn Féin team of MPs. A border constituency which voted 67% Remain should see Begley easily elected without any cross party co-operation. (Sinn Féin Retain)
Upper Bann - This would be a constituency which would probably become a two horse race between a PBA and ABA, with the DUP and Sinn Féin likely to go head to head. Though the result could be quite close, the DUP should take the seat. (DUP Retain)
Total/Iomlán :
Sinn Féin - 8 (+1)
DUP - 7 (-3)
Alliance - 2 (+2)
Ind - 1 (NC)
Comments
Post a Comment