Séighin Ó Ceallaigh

  Operating off the recent in-depth RedC poll, while taking other recent polls into account, one thing is certain, Sinn Féin will have a time-machine on the top of their list to Santa if the election isn’t called before Christmas. It seems like it was only yesterday when the party was polling in the mid-30s, reaching a high of 36%, and seemed like a government in waiting if they managed to get some smaller parties and independents on board. What must have been a scramble for candidates to even get within a whiff of a majority, now some tough decisions will have to be made as to whether they will even run a second candidate in some constituencies. Keep in mind that in some constituencies where the polled well in 2020, and were polling very well in polls, such as Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan, and Louth, there were rumours of a third candidate being added in the 5-seater constituencies where they were polling close to 50% of the vote. When once there were talks of 60+ seats, now they...

  Two elections took place in Ireland last Friday (Three in Limerick, which also had its first Mayoral Election), but you would be forgiven for thinking that there were in fact four or more. Depending on who you asked, a variety of parties had both a good and bad day at the polls. Unlike Schrodinger’s Cat, the parties remain very much alive, though some more alive than others, with none actually licking their wounds. We knew much of the results of the local elections by Sunday evening, apart from the epic count in Newbridge which saw four re-counts and neither candidate involved being elected. They key result, which we knew on Saturday night, was the national result. By the time the weekend came to an end, we knew that there was a correlation between the local and EU results, in terms of party polling at least. Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew MP conceded a little early, but was quick to change her mind and put herself back in contention for a seat, which she was. Fine Gael leade...

  Attendance Will Decide ‘Eviction Ban’ Vote   Since its election and formation in 2020, the Irish Government of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party, have been pretty comfortable in the knowledge that with some compromise within their own ranks, their legislation will pass through the Dáil. With the reliable support coming from the Independent benches, their slim majority is usually not questioned. However today we will see that majority reliant upon attendance, rather than political dealings. At least one Green Party TD will be jumping ship for this vote, the ever outspoken, rarely defiant, Neasa Hourigan. Independents that can be persuaded with the occasional post office or community centre in their constituencies, and have previous ties with either FF or FG, now seem to be hesitant when it comes to aligning themselves with the two, and some have said that they will be voting against them. This particular issue, the ending of the eviction ban, has become toxi...

Sturgeon May Have Jumped Before She Was Pushed   For almost a decade Nicola Sturgeon had led her party, the SNP, and the Scottish Parliament, but today she has announced her resignation. It has come to a shock to most, considering the SNP’s dominance in Scotland, but tougher times were ahead for her and her party. It is admirable of her to stand down for the sake of her party, as she told the media, but why exactly did she feel the need to have the SNP select a new leader? For the last few months the Labour surge has arrived north of the border, and it has been at the expense of the SNP, though they should comfortably retain their political prominence in the next Westminster election next year, and the Scottish election in 2026. However, their dominance will be dented if polling is anything to go by. Go back a year or so, and both Labour and the Conservatives were hovering around the 20% mark, often in the high teens; while the SNP saw many polls where they exceeded 50% support. No...

  Varadkar & Martin Will Be Cautious Of Green Pact   In the lead up to the 2020 General Election, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were neck and neck in the polls, both vying for the leadership of the nation, hopeful that it would not require the other to do so, not in terms of a coalition at least. That did end up playing out, with Fianna Fáil narrowly beating Fine Gael in terms of seats. What was unanticipated however, was that Sinn Féin would elect the most TDs. The hopes of another ‘confidence and supply’ agreement, possibly with the reversal of roles, were dashed, and FF and FG were forced to go into government with each other for the first time in both of their histories. They didn’t exactly form a government based on leading parties, with the role of Taoiseach rotating between the two party leaders. There was a minor party in government with them though, the Green Party, who look set to face the ‘smaller government party’ slump in the next general election, possibl...

  With deer-season well underway, many Irish hunters are out and about harvesting food for their families, but as is evident in recent weeks, the numbers aren’t nearly high enough. Across Ireland local politicians and community activists have made their voices heard in relation to the problem of the overpopulation of deer. It’s a pity that these politicians, and particularly national ones, didn’t seem to care about the creation of this problem during the Covid-19 lockdowns, where this story begins. One of the most bizarre rules enforced by the government, was that it was illegal to hunt during hunting season, the one time per year when deer numbers can be lowered. Today we see the effects of prohibiting the annual opportunity to keep our deer population under control. Ireland has no natural predators, and thus it is up to the hunters of Ireland to manage our deer population. The benefits of management are not just to protect our national food supply and agricultural sector, nor...

  With the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party coalition now entering its third year of a maximum five-year term, many are of the opinion that the trio will ride out the rather undesirable polling figures and wait until the last possible moment to call another general election. Another common opinion is that an election will be called in the second half of 2024, how late in that half dependent on the results of the European and Local elections in May of that year. Both valid points, particularly the latter; a bumper budget in October, semi-decent canvassing weather, and pre-empting the inevitable winter healthcare crisis, all make for a workable scenario for the government parties. However, strategically speaking, taking those points and applying them to October 2023 may make more sense for Martin, Varadkar, and Ryan, should they be willing to gamble their final year of the term for the prospects of another five-year stint running Leinster House. Despite current polling having ...

  Elitism Prevails   In 2013 the people of Ireland voted to retain our second house of democracy, Seanad Éireann; but it was a narrow victory and was predicated by a general understanding that the Irish electorate wanted to see this pathetic resemblance of democracy to be seriously reformed. Nine years later, that elitism that was promised to be rid from our flawed democracy is still thriving. Next month, March 2022, we will see a by-election for a Seanad seat that was vacated by the Labour Party’s Ivana Bacik when she was elected to the only truly democratic house in the state, Dáil Éireann. But despite an electorate in the millions, only some 60,000 people will be granted the privilege of voting; graduates from Trinity College Dublin, an institute with a deep history of elitism and sectarianism. Of the sixty seats in the Seanad, graduates of TCD have the privilege of voting for three of those Seanadóirí, and the combined institutes that form the National Universities...

  DUP First Minister Paul Givan has announced his upcoming resignation as FM, resulting in the automatic resignation of his Sinn Féin counterpart, Michelle O'Neill, and bringing forward the prospect of an early election. It appears to be a co-ordinated and meticulously planned attempt to derail ongoing Brexit negotiations, which could see a permanent customs border in the Irish Sea. Firstly, DUP Minister for Agriculture, Edwin Poots, who himself is desperately trying to save his political career after failing to gain the party nomination in South Down for the next election, issued an order for checks to end on goods coming from Britain. It was a move with little substance, and wouldn’t take much of a legal challenge for it to be overruled. But the DUP didn’t hang around on this issue, and almost immediately used it as an excuse to trigger the collapse of the Northern Assembly, a last-ditch attempt to save the DUP, who are being closely chased by two other unionist parties in th...

They say a rising tide lifts all boats, and this may be a saying that will apply to minimum unit pricing in the near future. Minimum unit pricing will mean that you'll be hard pushed to find a can of beer for less than €2, and a bottle of spirits for less than €25, based on their percentages of alcohol. Even when buying bulk offers, the price won't dip much below the mentioned prices. Already, just days after the introduction of MUP, prices are exceeding the mandatory minimum, unsurprisingly. While in a supermarket doing some shopping, I took a detour into the segregated alcohol section, only to find 6,8, and 12 packs quite a bit above the MUP. The only value I found, and I use that term lightly, was with full slabs and boxes of 20 bottles. Then I took a turn into the spirits section, cheaper own brands had disappeared, and as a regular whiskey drinker, I noticed that the prices had risen sharply over the past week. A bottle of my beloved Jameson now just shy of €30...

It was an honour to don the Limerick Mayoral chains in 2015 for Limerick Council's inaugural Oíche Gaeilge, which I had established during my first year on the Council to mark Seachtain na Gaeilge. I was acting as Deputy Mayor for this event, and once more during my council term, at the opening of the new facility for the Irish Wheelchair Association. While I enjoyed the experiences, I would much rather see a Mayor and Deputy Mayor elected by the people of Limerick; but as I stated on national radio this week, I wouldn't be surprised if the people of Limerick are left waiting until 2024 before they can cast their vote. The details of what role the new Mayor of Limerick will play in terms of the Council dynamic, and what powers they will have, are yet to be finalised. We don't know about election spending, if there will be a directly elected Deputy Mayor, and how the Mayor will work with the CEO, a position that would surely become redundant after the election, b...

  Falling asleep in the middle of an international climate conference, representing a country with a lot to do when it comes to tackling emissions, may not have been the worst part of ‘Sleepy Joe’ Biden’s week. It was a name that gained traction during the 2020 Presidential Election, discrediting him as an old man who wouldn’t be up to the job. It was a tactic successfully used by former president Trump in 2016, when he accused Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton of not having the ‘stamina’ to be President of the United States. Though he used personalised attacks unsuccessfully in 2020, this one seems to be somewhat true of Sleepy Joe, who dozed off with his arms crossed mid-conference; and let’s not forget falling up the stairs along with his numerous ‘gaffs’. But it the nightmare for Sleepy Joe was not falling asleep, but what happened in a pretty blue state, close to his homestate of Delaware (it’s no longer Pennsylvania since he won the election). In a state where he d...

  BOOK REVIEW : ANIMAL FARM   There is no doubt that George Orwell’s classic Animal Farm will divide opinions depending on what side of the political spectrum that you stand on, and your understanding of late imperial and early soviet Russian history. I tried to put the historical reflection to the back of my mind while reading this book, and as a historian it was rather difficult. Some of the analogies were downright wrong, many were open to interpretation, and some were fair. What I gathered about the author from this read was that he was a diehard Trotskyist, eulogising the assassinated liberal-left ideologist in the form of Snowball the pig, and Communist leader Vladimir Lenin in the form of Major the pig; while vilifying Josef Stalin in his depiction as tyrant pig Napoleon. While the pigs represent Soviet leadership, the dogs represent the Soviet Army and Police, and the other animals the general workers of the USSR. I would argue that more time is spent vilify...

  By the time you are reading this, it is likely that California Governor Gavin Newsom will either have survived a recall election, or will have been removed as Governor. But the timing of the election, the same day as Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney faces what is almost certain to be an unsuccessful motion of no confidence, and it begs the question, ‘Should Ireland have a recall process?’ For those unaware of the process, following incompetence or scandal (Governor Newsom was caught breaking his own COVID rules, sound familiar?), the minimum of 12% of the California electorate signed a petition to hold a recall election, which is composed of two parts. Firstly will Newsom stay or go, which requires 50% approval (he was elected with 62% of the vote), and if the electorate choose for him to go, then Part II of the ballot will come into effect, who will replace him? A motion of no confidence usually requires the government of the day to turn against one of their ow...

Former Taoiseach, and current Tánaiste and leader of Fine Gael, Leo Varadkar, was spotted this weekend attending a festival in England, all while such festivals in Ireland are outlawed under the Martin-Varadkar administration. It is a serious case of 'do as I say, not as I do', as while the Tánaiste was taking a break (which he is entitled to), Electric Picnic was forbidden from going ahead here in Ireland. Like a teenager seeing how far they can push their parent's boundaries, Leo for some time has been seeing how far he can push his luck with the electorate, and an inept Fianna Fáil. We had #LeoTheLeak, which led to a criminal investigation, #LeoTheLiar when the changing version of his recollection of events appeared to be changing by the day, and most recently #Merriongate, where he attended a large gathering with still unknown characters from the Irish political circles. Now he is pushing those boundaries again, and will likely face no consequences for his d...

This week Fianna Fáil Housing Minister Darragh O'Brien launched the Government's new housing strategy, entitled 'Housing For All'. Though the name is quite deceiving, as it does not in fact plan for 'Housing For All'. In what feels like the 1,237th housing document released since Fine Gael took office in 2011, and ten years later are still in power, it once again lacks ambition, and puts more focus on subsidising landlords and investment funds, rather than deliver family homes. It seems like just yesterday that former Housing Minsters Jan O'Sullivan, Alan Kelly, and Eoghan Murphy, were massaging figures to give the illusion that homes were being delivered, when in fact landlords were given an incentive to drive up rents through schemes such as the Housing Assistance Payment, HAP. This scheme was used to divert the figures of people awaiting public homes, making it appear that there were less people in need of permanent housing than there actually...

My first book review, and may as well start with the last book that I finished reading, The Road  by Cormac McCarthy. McCarthy sort of made headlines recently, popping up on Twitter using a blue-tick profile, but it turns out that Twitter wrongly assigned the verification symbol. (I'll admit I thought he was dead too, turns out he's just very old) This is the only novel by McCarthy that I've read, purely because I loved the film. I also enjoyed the film version of No Country For Old Men , so that may get added to my 'To Read' list, which always seems to be growing. I may seem a little full of it by kind of dumping on a Pulitzer Prize winning novel, but I'm going to dump a little anyway. The story was great, even better than the movie, but it was the writing style that drove me crazy. Lack of punctuation, no chapter definition, and most of all, no quotation marks. I would find myself half way through a sentence before realising that it was one of the ...